A top provider of aviation systems, products, and services has officially predicted that over the next ten years, new aircraft sales alone will reach the $300 billion dollar mark. Last year was the fifth year in a row that the business aviation industry expanded rather than contracted, with new aircraft manufacture and delivery up over 20% more than in 2007. It’s believed that 2009 will continue the trend.

These are record-setting sales of new aircraft, which might be surprising giving the economic crises in the world today. But the need to remain competitive in an already competitive market prompts many airlines to start replacing their fleet to woo new customers, despite the economic downturn. The age of planes plays a part, as do newer and better avionics, but many order newer, state-of-the-art planes mainly for the more spacious cabins. An increasingly global economy drives the industry, and the need to cater to its customers.

Still, if the prediction for an increase in business aviation sales in 2009 seems like mere optimism, then look at the facts. Right now, top manufacturers have a backlog equaling two to three years of standard deliveries, so just the fulfillment of those waiting orders are sure to make 2009 another record-breaker for the business aviation industry.

In business aviation, orders made a year or two ago account for many jets that will be produced not this year but over the next few. It’s not uncommon for an order to be placed four or five years before the aircraft is actually expected to go into service. So the economic downturn could affect orders coming in over the next year or more, which would slow manufacturers in the future, especially since business flights in both the United States and Europe have slowed this year, with no real boost in sight for 2009.

But a downturn for the business aviation industry in two to four years is only a possibility that has yet to be played out by the facts. An improved economy in the next year could ensure that the record numbers in the industry continue beyond the predicted peak in late 2009 or 2010, when some suggest the growth will stop.

The number of customers from beyond the United States has shifted somewhat in recent years so that around 50% of orders predicted in the new few years will come from beyond the US borders. This figure could affect any predicted highs or lows in the industry, as aviation and the need for newer and better fleets grow in other countries. This boon could offset any downturn because of slowing US orders, the experts say.

Still, the US economy can affect global orders. When the dollar is weak against the Euro and other currency, other countries have more motivation to purchase. But as the dollar grows stronger, bringing their prices up, European orders could slow. Latin and South America are expected to continue a strong showing in purchases, though, because of their strengthening economies and currencies.